The USFL regular season ended in exciting fashion with two unlikely teams earning playoff berths. While the South Division will feature a rematch of last year’s Divisional Championship between the Birmingham Stallions and the New Orleans Breakers, the North has two new entrants with the Pittsburgh Maulers and the Michigan Panthers.
Big wins last weekend for Pittsburgh and Michigan helped them earn divisional tiebreakers despite losing records (4-6). New blood in the North Division Championship is great for a league dripping with parity, but it also creates the likelihood of a lopsided league game. For our final USFL betting preview, I’ll break down each of this weekend’s Division Finals and explain why I think it’s more beneficial to place your bet now on this year’s USFL Champion.
I don’t even know how either of these teams got here. Pittsburgh looked left for dead at 2-6 with just two weeks remaining, while Michigan spent the second half of the season in the basement of most power rankings.
In true spring football fashion, the Panthers turned to backup QB EJ Perry in the most important game of the season. Perry cocked his mobility as the Panthers fought back with 17 unanswered points to shock the Philadelphia Stars, 23-20. Rollovers and poor execution from the red zone have plagued the Panthers all year, so Perry’s wheels inside the 10 give Michigan a fighting chance in this one.
However, the Maulers defense allows the second fewest rushing yards and leads the USFL in both takeouts (20) and turnover differential (+8). That should be the difference. Although the books finally caught up and opened up Pittsburgh’s under-40 total, I still think less is better. Both of these teams have played twice this season with Pittsburgh winning both, 23-7 and 19-7. I bet the Maulers under every game this season and went 8-1-1. Their games average just 35.5 points per game and this game pits them against the worst performing team in the league (17.1 points per game). Best bet: Under 38.5
New Orleans Breakers +2.5 vs. Birmingham Stallions (O/U 44.5)
If the XFL hadn’t taught me a lesson, I’d say this is the league championship game for all intents and purposes. The top two teams, and only two teams in the league to finish the season with winning records, meet for the third time after splitting the season series 1-1.
I’ve said this since the start of the season, the Breakers are the most talented team in the league, but they continue to self-destruct when it matters most. They beat Birmingham, 45-31, in Week 3 while exploding for 7.3 yards per game. Their one-season roller coaster saw them start 4-0, only to give up their next three, before finishing the season with three straight wins. Which Breakers team should we expect in the biggest game of the year? It’s hard to be sure they’re maintaining momentum after watching them crumble in so many big spots this year.
The Stallions are last year’s defending champions and have the much more reliable QB when the game is on the line. Alex McGough leads all starting quarterbacks in passing touchdowns (20), shooting percentage completion (67%) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). I will put anything up to a basket and rely on Birmingham’s experience to get there. Best bet: Birmingham -2.5
USFL Championship Winner – Birmingham +130
Most sportsbooks have futures odds, listing the Birmingham Stallions as favorites to repeat. This is a great opportunity to push our bet on Birmingham forward and get a good price on the stallions. Birmingham is a -150 favorite on the moneyline this weekend against New Orleans, implying a 60% chance of advancing. We’re already invested in the Stallions for the final, so playing them at +135 to win the title puts us ahead of what’s going to be a very wide line in the championship game. Let’s take a look at how the Stallions were rated against their potential regular season opponents.
Pittsburgh – Birmingham closed at BetMGM as the 8.5 point favorite and -333 on the moneyline. The Stallions won, 24-20, but failed to cover as heavy favorites.
Michigan – Birmingham closed as a 5.5 point favorite and -222 on the moneyline. The Stallions won, 27-13, and covered easily despite losing the turnover battle. The odds were shorter than their game against Pittsburgh, but they were also coming off their second loss of the season. I don’t expect Michigan to get the same credit considering Birmingham will be on a six-game winning streak if they reach the Finals.
The final reason I agree with buying Birmingham now is the advantage the Stallions will have on the sidelines. The other three playoff coaches are on their first USFL tours, while Skip Holtz has proven he can lead his players to a championship. It might not be the sexy pick that takes the favorite, but getting them now at +130 makes all too much sense considering they could easily be at -300 next week.