(Bloomberg) – Spain’s main opposition party is set to hand Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez a crushing defeat in national elections next month, according to a new opinion poll.
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The People’s Party would win 154 seats in parliament and be able to form a majority in the 350-member chamber by joining the far-right Vox, which is expected to have 40 seats, according to a survey by polling firm Metroscopia. Sanchez’s socialist party would win 97 seats.
The poll also shows that Sanchez would be unable to keep his job even if a group of far-left parties ran on a single ticket on July 23. Sanchez needs support from the far left to form a government because his socialist party is unlikely to achieve a majority on its own. Because Spain’s electoral system rewards large parties more than small ones, far-left groups can win more seats if they run together.
“A single candidacy from the parties to the left of the Socialists would not be enough to avoid a majority from the PP and Vox”, according to the Metroscopia report, which does not detail the number of seats the far left could obtain if it works with just one. ticket. The report was distributed to client companies.
The parties have until late Friday to form their tickets and the two main far-left groups, Sumar and Podemos, are holding last-minute talks to seek an agreement. Leaders of both groups currently serve in Sanchez’s coalition government.
Metroscopia surveyed 3,000 people by phone between May 29 and June 7, with a margin of error of 2.3.
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