A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes… Numbers lie.
Glasnow is suddenly sitting with a lousy era after an outburst on Tuesday in which two of his three allowed fly balls went off court. The outing also included 13 puffs over just 4.1 innings and a 2.53 xFIP. Glasnow has not had proper spring training after suffering a strained oblique, and four of his five starts since his return have come against top-10 offenses in wRC+. Despite the busy schedule, Glasnow sports a top five K%, and only Spencer Strider has a better CSW among qualified starters. He arguably has the best in baseball and will benefit from Tampa Bay’s league-best offense and extreme pitching fleet, so ignore his current ERA. I would treat a healthy Glasnow as one of the top three fantasy starters going forward.
Emmet Sheehan’s unsuccessful debut was a lie
Sheehan didn’t allow a hit in six scoreless innings in his MLB debut and became a popular waiver wire addition. He had dominant minor league numbers and will benefit pitching for the Dodgers, but his MLB debut wasn’t as encouraging as his scoring might suggest. His SwStr% (4.5) was one of the lowest among almost 2,000 qualified starts this season, and Sheehan things took a dramatic plungeprobably because of the different baseballs used in Double-A.
The rookie also had a low 13.3 GB% and a high 42.7 Ball% in the output, which equates to a 5.7 BB/9 (control was his main area of concern in the minors). His CSW when debuting would rank last easily among all qualified starters this season. Sheehan’s six scoreless innings came with a 6.45 xFIP. He’s certainly capable, but know that he’ll have to throw a lot better for continued MLB success.
Aaron Nola’s 4.66 ERA is a lie
Nola has been a fantastic disappointment this year, but his ERA of 4.66 comes with an xERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.10. His strikeouts are down, but he’s top-10 in CSW (sandwich between Shohei Ohtani And Luis Castillo) and is among league leaders in puffs on the last 300 pitches thrown, so more K should arrive. Nola’s 61.9 LOB% is in the bottom five among starters this season, but he should start throwing like he has throughout his career with runners on base (73.1 LOB%) who advance. Nola has also had pretty steep ERA home/road spreads over his career (3.23/4.14) and only 40% of his starts have come at Citizens Bank Park this year. Nola’s ERA is due for a major regression with more luck and a schedule starting to loosen up after Wednesday’s game with the Braves.
Bryan Woo’s 7.30 ERA is a lie
Woo’s ERA 7.30 comes with a 2.32 xFIP and a 16.0 SwStr% which would rank behind only Spencer Strider among the qualified starters this season. He throws his fastball 77% of the time but place it well and also has a developing cursor. Woo has an innings cap, having already tied last season’s total, but he’s now stuck in the Mariners’ rotation. Seattle has removed BABIP more than any park this season, and Woo’s peripherals through three starts place him among the best starters in baseball. It is available in 90% of Yahoo leagues.
Andrew Abbott’s 0.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are lies
Obviously any pitcher with zero MPM is going to start allowing points, but Abbott’s peripherals are scary. He sort of started his MLB career with 17.2 scoreless innings over three starts despite going 12:9 K:BB. Abbott has a BABIP of .200 (reportedly second lowest among qualified SPs) despite an average exit speed (92.3 mph) reportedly second highest among qualified starters. And good luck continuing to not allow home runs while playing in a park that increases long balls an MLB-high 49% over the past three seasons. Abbott had a 4.63 FIP in Triple-A this year and currently sports a 5.78 SIERA. THE BAT is projecting a 4.96 ERA for the remainder of the season. Abbott will be a prime candidate if he capitalizes on Wednesday’s strong home start against the Rockies.