Witness the real launch of President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.
With an address to the nation on Friday evening and the signing of the debt ceiling agreement on Saturday, the president previewed the message and touted the record he will present to voters next year as he seeks a second mandate.
It came at a time that shows both his considerable strengths and his potential vulnerabilities in trying to forge the coalition and generate the enthusiasm that put him in the White House for the first time. He rallied centrists to the deal, for example, but turned off some of the liberal and black voters he will need again.
“Nobody got everything they wanted, but the American people got what they needed,” Biden said in his first speech from the Oval Office, a sign of the seriousness of the speech. “We avoided an economic crisis, an economic collapse.”
The most significant impact of the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act is averting the first-ever national debt default, a fiscal crisis that would have dramatically increased the chances of a recession – the kind of downturn that would undermine the prosperity of Americans and would threaten Biden’s re-election prospects.
He signed the bill just two days before Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the government would run out of money to pay its bills.
There were other reasons why the president’s first substantive negotiations with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) since Republicans took control of the House in January represent a key moment in Biden’s first term and his candidacy for a second.
Here are three.
Biden’s Mark: Let’s Make a Deal
The president’s political persona is that of a centrist who can broker deals with the other side, even in times of polarization.
In his speech, Biden noted that he signed other bills passed with bipartisan support, including a huge infrastructure spending program, a measure to boost semiconductor manufacturing and modest limits on fire arms.
But the debt ceiling bill was reached with an emboldened GOP and an untested new president. Despite the displeasure of the most conservative Republicans and the most liberal Democrats, the bill passed Congress by a large majority, 314-117 in the House and 63-36 in the Senate.
The negotiations also demonstrated McCarthy’s ability to deliver two-thirds of Republicans despite the defections of most members of the combative Freedom Caucus — and to survive the experience. A procedural motion from a single disgruntled Republican could have compelled him to defend his leadership position.
It didn’t happen, not this time.
The costs of compromise
Not everyone on Biden’s team liked the terms he achieved.
Forty-six House Democrats voted against the bill, most of them members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Only one member of the Squad, the most liberal members of the House, supported him. Four Democratic senators voted “no”.
“My red line has already been crossed,” New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez complained beforehand, then voted against the bill. “I mean, where do I start? [No] own debt ceiling. Work requirements. Program cuts. I would never vote – I would never vote – for that.
Many Democratic dissidents have complained that the deal imposes new work requirements on some adult food assistance recipients, though the measure also removes current work requirements for veterans and the homeless.
Even some staunch Biden allies, including Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, protested approval to build the Mountain Valley pipelines through West Virginia and Virginia. The 300-mile pipeline will cross the Appalachian Trail and, critics say, will damage the environment.
The White House has already seen an erosion of the president’s standing among Democratic base voters, including young people and black voters, the demographic group most loyal to the party. The Democratic coalition is counting on their support and needs their enthusiasm to generate the turnout necessary to win the national elections.
In the 2022 elections, black voter turnout declined compared to the 2018 midterm elections; turnout fell even more among Hispanics. Biden’s approval rating among black adults fell to 58% in an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted last month. That’s down from around 90% approval in the poll shortly after his inauguration.
One more problem: The president’s misstep onstage Thursday during the Air Force Academy’s opening proceedings was an unwelcome reminder of another challenge he faces. He tripped over the edge of a sandbag that stabilized a teleprompter, falling on his right side.
He was quickly helped to his feet and insisted he was unhurt. “I got caught in sandbags,” he joked to reporters on his return to the White House. But reports of the fall and video of it on social media have drawn voters’ attention to the fact that Biden, now 80, is too old for another term.
And after?
The high stakes on the debt ceiling helped force a deal this time, but in the absence of a national crisis, White House officials have few illusions that more negotiations on major issues are likely to succeed as attention turns to the upcoming election and partisanship heats up.
In his speech, Biden described the GOP agenda as extreme and dangerous and described himself as a bulwark against it. He criticized Republicans for protecting what he called “special interest tax loopholes” and reiterated his support for raising taxes on the wealthy, including a minimum tax on billionaires.
Maybe not in that term, though. After that.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biden’s Brand, McCarthy’s Attraction and the Cost of Debt Compromises