Oddsmakers aren’t bullish on the chances of Ford drivers continuing their Michigan winning streak.
The top five favorites ahead of Sunday’s race (2:30 p.m. ET) are either Chevy or Toyota drivers, with Hendrick’s Kyle Larson and William Byron as the top two favorites. Ford drivers have won the last eight Michigan races dating back to Larson’s sweep while driving a Chevy for Chip Ganassi Racing in 2017.
A lot has changed in NASCAR over the past six seasons, and Fords haven’t been especially good at intermediate tracks in 2023. The top Ford favorite is Kevin Harvick at +900 and that’s an obvious choice. Harvick is the defending winner of this race and has won five races in that span of Ford victories.
Harvick is still looking for his first win of 2023 and is solidly in the playoffs even if he doesn’t get a regular-season victory. Harvick is sixth in the points standings and is the top winless driver. So far, 12 drivers have won a race over the first 22 races of the season. If there’s not a new winner on Sunday, Harvick will be ensured of a playoff spot as long as he remains the top winless driver in the standings.
Here’s a look at what you need to know to bet on Sunday’s race via BetMGM.
The favorites
-
Kyle Larson (+600)
-
William Byron (+650)
-
Denny Hamlin (+750)
-
Kyle Busch (+800)
-
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
-
Kevin Harvick (+900)
Larson won three races in a row at Michigan from 2016-17. He’s finished in the top seven in each of his last three Michigan starts. Byron doesn’t have the best stats at Michigan but he hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last five starts and has been one of the best drivers in the Cup Series at intermediate tracks in 2023. Hamlin has two wins and 11 top fives; he hasn’t finished any lower than sixth in his last five Michigan starts. Truex has six consecutive top-10 finishes at Michigan while Busch’s crash a season ago broke a streak of nine consecutive top 10s at the track.
Good mid-tier value
-
Joey Logano (+1400)
-
Chase Elliott (+1600)
Elliott has the best average finish (8.0) of any active driver at Michigan. He has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his 12 starts at the track. Logano has three Michigan wins and has finished in the top 10 in three of his five starts at the track since his last victory in 2019.
Don’t bet this driver
Chastain’s win at Nashville in June has glossed over what’s been a terrible summer. Chastain has just two top-10 finishes over his last 10 races and has finished outside the top 20 in seven of those 10. His best finish since winning at Nashville is 13th at Pocono.
Looking for a long shot?
Why not go with last week’s winner? Buescher’s teammate Brad Keselowski is at +2000 to win, so this is great value. He’s had similar speed to Keselowski all season long.