Expect another low-scoring week in the PGA as the tour heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open. The winner has scored 15 under or better in each of the last four years. With low scores projected, picking an outright can be that much more volatile. It’s weeks like this when the head-to-head market may offer more value. Here are two full tournament bets to make at TPC Twin Cities. Season record: 16-10-2.
Stephen Jaegar (-115) vs. Ryan Fox
Although not a demanding course, TPC Twin Cities will punish those not in tip-top form off the tee. With narrow fairways loaded with bunkers, a player’s ball striking does need to be in check to avoid danger zones.
Fox has lost strokes off the tee in three of his last four tournaments, while losing strokes putting in two of his last three. Although his iron play has remained in the green, Jaeger is simply the better ball striker, ranking 16th in the field while improving his putting. After losing strokes putting in four of five tournaments between April and May, Jaeger has flipped the script, gaining in five of his last six with three top-25 finishes, including T9 in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. With Fox returning from Scotland, the travel adjustment may also come into play, while Jaegar stayed settled stateside, partaking in the Barracuda Championship in California.
Cam Young (-115) vs. Tony Finau
Finau won this event last year but is playing like anything but a champion as of late. Finau has back-to-back missed cuts, losing strokes either off the tee or with his irons, while bleeding red with this putter. Losing strokes in four of his last six tournaments, Finau is far removed from his win in the Mexico Open in late April.
Young can be a bit of a risky player to back because of his lack of putting. However, he enters this tournament third in the field off the tee, with back-to-back top-10 finishes, coming off his best iron play of the season and gaining over nine strokes on approach in The Open Championship. Having no course history could be cause for concern, but I’m trusting the player who is first from tee to green coming into this week with momentum.