AXSM stock jumps after first-ever guidance beats analysts’ expectations

Axsome therapeutics (AXSM) expects its eight products to generate up to $11.5 billion in peak U.S. sales, the company said in a filing that pushed AXSM stock higher on Wednesday.


This is the first time that Axsome has provided advice on its product range. The company forecast a range of $5.8 billion to $11.5 billion in peak sales. That’s well above analysts’ forecasts of $2.4 billion to $4.5 billion, Mizuho Securities analyst Graig Suvannavejh said in a report. It’s important to note, however, that the analysts do not include estimates for the eight drugs in their forecasts.

“We are delighted that Axsome has finally provided its perspective on potential sales spikes for its products,” Suvannavejh said. “We believe the market can encourage the company’s bullish view on its products.”

Trading today, AXSM stock jumped 8.1% to 80.91.

AXSM stock: Auvelity is the key

Among the biggest opportunities, Axsome expects Auvelity to bring in between $1 billion and $3 billion in sales in the United States as a treatment for depression. But the company is also studying the same drug in Alzheimer’s disease agitation and smoking cessation. Axsome is asking $1.5 billion to $3 billion for the first group of patients and $500 to $1 billion for the second.

Axsome also confirmed plans to launch four new products by 2025, including treatments in tests for migraine, narcolepsy, fibromyalgia and Alzheimer’s disease-related agitation. The company expects to have early data from a Phase 3 study in Alzheimer’s disease agitation in early 2024. But it also says results from its final phase study in narcolepsy will be delayed. by a quarter.

In narcolepsy, Axsome expects a spike of $500 million to $1 billion. On the upside for AXSM shares, this is much better than Suvannavejh’s call for $100 million.

“Furthermore, in our view, with an expected launch in 2025, we believe this supports the company’s view that only one pivotal Phase 3 study will be required to support a (New Drug Application) submission.” in narcolepsy, he said.

Suvannavejh has a buy rating and target price of 95 on AXSM stock.

Top 4% of shares

The news pushed AXSM stock well above its 50-day moving average, according to

The stocks have a strong IBD numerical relative strength rating of 96, which puts them in the top 4% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance.

Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.


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