Alarming Carlos Correa stats show Giants averted contract disaster

Alarming Carlos Correa stats show Giants averted contract disaster originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Fortunately for the Giants, they will not have to pay Carlos Correa $350 million over 13 seasons.

In what ended up being a frustrating and heartbreaking offseason for San Francisco and its fans, the Giants can take solace in their decision not to go through with what would have been the largest contract in franchise history and potentially one of the biggest mistakes.

Correa famously agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the Giants on Dec. 13 before his introductory press conference one week later at Oracle Park was canceled due to a medical issue that arose during Correa’s physical with team doctors. After his deal with San Francisco fell through, the star shortstop then agreed to a new deal with the New York Mets before that too fell through because of a similar medical concern.

Nearly one month after agreeing to a deal with the Giants, Correa eventually signed a six-year, $200 million contract with the Minnesota Twins, and in 105 games played this season, has performed nowhere near the value of any of the three contracts he agreed to last offseason.

In 409 at-bats, Correa is batting an alarming .227/.300/.399/.696 with 14 home runs, 53 RBI, and a career-low OPS+ of 91. The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman did a deep dive into Correa’s season-long slump, where he broke down why the 28-year-old’s season could be cause for concern for Minnesota.

Correa currently is the 11th highest-paid player in baseball this season ($33.3 million), but his 1.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) through the Twins’ first 115 games has him ranked 324th in MLB and is on pace to be worth just $11.3 million based on WAR valuation. (h/t Aaron Gleeman).

His .696 OPS is 36 points below the league average (.732) and 125 points below his career average (.821). Correa also has struggled mightily in the clutch, an area where he thrived with the Houston Astros during the regular- and postseason. Correa is hitting .212 with runners in scoring position and .205 in high-leverage situations with a team-worst -1.48 Win Probability Added, which happens to be the 16th-worst in baseball.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Correa’s struggles, for the most part, are not due to bad luck. The slugger’s .244 expected batting average is better than his actual average (.228) but still quite poor, while his expected slugging percentage (.413) also is better than his actual slugging percentage (.395) but also underwhelming.

The Giants have been aggressive over the years in their continued pursuit of a superstar, and for a brief moment last winter appeared to have finally landed one.

However, with the way Correa’s 2023 season has played out, the Giants might have dodged a very expensive bullet.

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