(Bloomberg) – Since Pita Limjaroenrat led his Move Forward party to a surprise top spot in Thailand’s election last month, he has faced a flurry of legal complaints and controversies challenging his bid to take power after more of a decade of sustained army-rule.
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Now that parliament is due to convene on July 3 and lawmakers are expected to vote on a new prime minister in the days or weeks that follow, time is running out for the 42-year-old leader to ensure his victory is something other than symbolic.
Pita’s biggest challenge remains the 250-member Senate – a body appointed by the royalist military establishment following a 2014 coup, many of whose members oppose his proposal to ease sanctions for criticizing the royal family. And they apparently don’t care if he got the most votes.
“It’s not our job to listen to people,” said Sen. Prapanth Koonmee, a lawyer who said 90% of lawmakers in the upper house have already made up their minds, in an interview. “Even if you got 100 million votes, I still wouldn’t choose you if I didn’t like you or didn’t find you suitable.”
That didn’t slow down the Harvard-educated Pita. He has won support from a range of pro-democracy parties since the vote and has crisscrossed the country seeking to maintain enthusiasm for the May 14 election results in a shocking blow to the royalist establishment. .
The stakes are high ahead of the parliamentary vote, expected shortly after King Maha Vajiralongkorn opens parliament next week. A failure of Pita to garner enough support could mean the collapse of his coalition or even rule by a minority-led government.
Pita must also settle growing rifts between his Move Forward party and Pheu Thai, the coalition’s second-largest group, over the post of House speaker. The parties abruptly canceled a meeting previously scheduled for Wednesday after Pheu Thai said it wanted the job and Move Forward unilaterally announced its own candidate.
The uncertainty worries Thai markets and global investors. Thailand’s main stock index is Asia’s worst performer this year, having fallen around 11%.
Read more: Here’s how Thailand’s PM race could unfold as talks drag on
Pita played down the uncertainty and sought to reassure his supporters that he will lead the next government. This outreach has included meetings with various business groups, where he talks about the transition of power and the agenda of his first 100 days in office.
“We are working hard to break down the wall and forge an understanding between the two chambers,” Pita told parliament on Tuesday. “There is constant progress.”
He added that he is confident there will be enough support – he currently needs 64 senators – for him to be prime minister.
“Pita appears to be trying to create a sense of momentum and inevitability for him to become prime minister, hoping to pressure senators to support him,” practice manager Peter Mumford said. in Southeast Asia from the consulting firm Eurasia Group. “However, it is far from certain that the strategy will work.”
His performance as prime minister in waiting helped energize Move Forward supporters, who lobbied senators through online campaigns, public panels and street protests to declare their support for Pita. But the voices risk falling on deaf ears, as many senators have remained silent or publicly excluded their support.
READ: Thailand’s coalition says Senate is approaching for Pita’s premiership (3)
For many senators, resistance to Pita’s leadership rests largely on Move Forward’s platform to change the lèse-majesté law, or section 112 of Thailand’s penal code, which criminalizes criticism of the king. and other members of the royal family.
“Senators do not like his disloyalty to the monarchy and his plans to reform and uproot Thai society,” said Senator Prapanth, 69. “It’s not acceptable.”
Pita has denied allegations that he is disloyal, saying he seeks to improve relations between the monarchy and the people.
Prapanth’s remarks underscore how high the odds are against Pita and his pro-democracy coalition. Yet, with Move Forward previously excluding alliances with conservative parties, there is no alternative but to win as many senators as possible.
Behind the scenes, Move Forward has deployed top officials to approach individual senators — and has even relied on a network of allies who are friends and families of lawmakers to champion the party’s cause.
“We are trying every method necessary to communicate with as many senators as possible,” said Parit Wacharasindhu, the party’s political campaign manager, who is also one of the outreach negotiators.
One of their strategies has been to argue that senators should vote for Pita not because they agree with him, but for the same reason they cited when voting for incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan. -Ocha in 2019: because it had the support of the majority of the lower house.
Parit noted that hopes are higher for a group of 63 senators who previously voted for a failed measure to abolish the Senate’s power to vote for prime minister and limit it to the 500-member lower house. Parit said he was confident he could win over those senators and then pick others.
“I always hope that senators will make decisions based on rational grounds, independent of their emotions and personal preferences,” Parit said.
A lawmaker from Camp Pita is Senator Zakee Phithakkumpol, a 45-year-old academic who considers himself a minority in the upper house. Zakee said he occasionally shares his opinions privately with those who oppose Pita in hopes of changing their minds. He also helped advise Move Forward negotiators who approached him on how best to address senators’ concerns, he said.
“I have tried to communicate with former senators that I don’t side with Pita, but how we continue may not be good in the long run, especially if we want the monarchy to endure in Thai society,” Zakee said in an interview.
Zakee, who backed Prayuth in 2019, said he believed upholding democratic principles was the only way to prevent chaos.
“Thai society is at a crossroads between change and backwardness,” he said. “Your choice is going to upset some people anyway, so what’s most important is to play by the rules. I believe doing the right thing will protect you.
–With help from Anuchit Nguyen and Margo Towie.
(Updates with details on the fight for the house speaker position in the seventh paragraph.)
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