Ten days is not long in baseball. 10 perfect days doesn’t guarantee you’ll even come close to chasing the playoffs. 10 days without a win won’t necessarily keep you out. Watching the Cincinnati Reds, however, makes you wonder if 10 days can change everything.
It started on June 5, when the Reds beat the Milwaukee Brewers behind debuting starting pitcher Andrew Abbott … then summoned Elly De La Cruz to the major leagues for the next night’s game. The 21-year-old shortstop – switch-hitting and seemingly spring-loaded – is a consensus among baseball’s top five prospects thanks to an astonishing combination of power and speed, as well as a recent rapid improvement in his ball discipline. plaque.
In his first game, De La Cruz scored a brace at 112mph for the Reds’ hardest-hit ball of the season. In his second game, he hit a home run to the outer limits of the Great American Ball Park. In his fifth game, he sprinted from first, through a stop sign, home in 11.48 seconds and declared himself ‘the fastest man alive’, a claim quickly confirmed. by Statcast (at least if we’re talking about the baseball world).
On Wednesday night, the Reds swept the hapless Kansas City Royals to claim their fifth straight win, Patrick Mahomes asked De La Cruz to trade autographed memorabilia and second baseman Jonathan India was on TV without verbally explaining why. the Reds had dubbed themselves “America”. Team,” but exuding the kind of smiling confidence that makes it self-explanatory.
Heading into a Friday night series against the Houston Astros, the Reds are 8-2 in those 10 games, and a respectable 16-13 since the May 15 call-up of Matt McLain, the other best shortstop prospect. More importantly, they are suddenly just one game away from first place months after Phil Castellini, the public face of the team’s ownership group, implied they didn’t stand a chance.
This fun has managed to draw attention to something that has been in the works for well over 10 days: a return to relevance, perhaps faster than expected. Here are five reasons to pay attention to the Reds’ turnaround.
1. Elly De La Cruz arrives with talents from another world
Let’s just let the highlights do the talking. His first home run was so strong that Reds broadcasters exclaimed, “Oh my God! This ball had a family! as it blazed on all but the last row of seats.
Almost any ball that does not leave the park has the potential to turn into a triple. And in defense he throws harder than any other infielder. The guy is a Statcast fever dream come to life.
It won’t always be homers, steals and photoshoots for De La Cruz, whose batting line is a solid .235/.350/.412 after three straight no-hitters followed by six straight with one. Still, it’s nearly impossible to come out of those first nine games without some serious optimism.
The 6-foot-5 wonder primarily plays third base as McLain’s shortstop, which is just the latest example of his willingness and ability to learn on the fly. Players of his length often struggle to make consistent contact, and De La Cruz has a 69.4% contact rate that won’t set him up for batting titles. What they can (or should) do is master the sweetspot so their swings come mostly on strikes, where they can maximize damage.
At first, De La Cruz boasts an overly high 37.5% strikeout rate, but he also demonstrates the gains that have taken his prospect stock from “attractive toolbox” to “potential superstar.” He has walked in 15% of his plate appearances, thanks to a selective eye on the plate which, with the ongoing adjustments that have helped reduce his strikeout rate in each of the past two seasons, should eventually serve him well as he sets what could be an extremely high level of performance.
2. There are more young talents here, and still on the way
So McLain, the guy playing shortstop in front of De La Cruz? He himself is just 23, a 2021 first-round pick from UCLA that has torched the minors and, so far, the majors as well. He beats .328/.379/.516 in his first 28 games, good for a 136 OPS+. He was their No. 9 prospect heading into the season, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Two other great hopes are already making their contribution. Left-handed starter Andrew Abbott, who travels Friday night to Houston, is yet to allow a run in 11 2/3 innings in the major leagues, wielding big batting tricks that also produce a bit too many walks. Versatile infielder Spencer Steer made his 2022 debut and has nine home runs and 119 OPS in 66 games this season.
Steer came from the Minnesota Twins organization during what looks like an extremely savvy trade deadline in 2022 for Reds general manager Nick Krall. In a trade that sent mid-rotation starter Tyler Mahle to Minnesota, the Reds got both Steer and big-league corner prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand. In 45 Triple-A games so far, he’s averaging .354 with 17 homers.
All of this begins to create the best problem a baseball team can have: more talented players than positions. The Reds are one call away from having five good young infielders: De La Cruz, McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand and India, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year and apparent team leader who sits second goal, at least for now. That’s not even taking into account team legend Joey Votto, who returns on a rehab mission.
3. The Reds can really run
De La Cruz is certainly one of them, but the Reds have been successfully burning grassroots paths all season.
Under the tutelage of Collin Cowgill, a former major leaguer who joined the coaching staff this season, the Reds are tied for second in MLB in stolen bases (with 70), and also rank second in value. baseline as calculated by FanGraphs.
Baseball’s younger teams, including the Reds, are capitalizing on their athleticism with new rules designed to boost running play. It’s at least part of the equation — along with their baseball stadium’s batter-friendly dimensions — that puts the Reds in the top 10 in points per game.
4. A good enclosure can hide many weaknesses
Thriving teams with relatively low margins of error often find their immediate results hinged on the success or failure of their relievers. So, while hot young hitters lead the charge, the bullpen deserves a lot of credit for improving the team’s record.
Led by closer Alexis Diaz and a barrage of waiver claims and junkyard pick-ups, the Reds’ bullpen ranks sixth in baseball in the park-adjusted ERA. Success fueled by the bullpen may be fleeting, but the Reds are able to be less dependent on Diaz and company as they offer more prestige prospects to the majors.
5. A new day can dawn quickly, if the powers that be let it
In the confused NL Central, the Reds are one game behind the Pittsburgh Pirates and half a game behind second-placed Milwaukee Brewers. They now have an 8.4% playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, after falling below 2% just a month ago. It wouldn’t be shocking if those odds increased further as more talent arrived in Cincinnati (and perhaps some veteran talent left the rosters in St. Louis and Chicago).
The recent flurry of thrilling wins has also stirred the fan base in ways that cannot be calculated to the decimal place, lighting up the skies over a classic baseball town that had been weighed down by Castellini’s cynicism and his not-so-veiled threat of relocation to 2022. Now Ken Rosenthal is asking if the Reds could buy at the trade deadline, and Krall is leaving that promising door open.
“I don’t see anything stopping us from making an acquisition,” Krall told The Athletic.
It’s hard to miss the sliding door parallels to the Oakland A’s, whose unlikely seven-game winning streak was cheered by a crowd of reverse boycotters as team owner John Fisher ran the political maneuvering to move the team to Las Vegas with MLB apparent. support, a glimpse of what happens when Castellini’s bluster comes to fruition in the real world.
So what can 10 days do? Nothing, one might conclude from the dark saga of Oakland. Or, alternatively, they can do whatever the sport is supposed to do. Veteran Cincinnati wide receiver Luke Maile, an area native credited with popularizing the “America’s Team” element in the clubhouse, seems to understand that.
“It doesn’t guarantee anything,” he told The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans while explaining the team’s new moniker, “but it’s a lot of fun.”