VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Russia’s war in Ukraine will top the agenda when U.S. President Joe Biden and his NATO counterparts hold a summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius for two days from Tuesday.
The focus is on ensuring that Ukraine is supported as long as the conflict continues, on how to bring the country even closer to NATO without joining, and on guarantees of security that Kiev might need to ensure that Russia does not invade again once the war is over.
The leaders are ready to approve new defense plans if Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to expand Moscow’s war beyond Ukraine and west into Allied territory. They will also assess defense spending and how to increase their budgets as aid to Ukraine eats away at their military coffers.
Sweden’s membership is also under discussion as Turkey delays the Scandinavian country’s entry into the world’s largest security organization.
NATO hopes that Lithuania’s big neighbor and Russia’s main backer, Belarus, will not play a surprising role.
UKRAINE’S ACCESSION TO NATO
The most important item on NATO’s agenda is what to do about Ukraine. US President George W. Bush led the charge in 2008, promising that Ukraine would one day become a member.
Now the country is trying to fend off a full-scale invasion by NATO’s old enemy, Russia. The West thinks that Ukraine is defending its interests and that countries are pouring billions in aid, economic and military support.
NATO is not yet ready to start accession negotiations with Ukraine. But it is helping to train and modernize its armed forces and security institutions to ensure that the country can take its place in NATO ranks after the war ends. The summit will see the creation of a new forum for consultations — the NATO-Ukraine Council.
SAFETY GUARANTEES
It’s not really a NATO issue – more for individual allies – but it’s about to dominate talks in Vilnius.
NATO and its Western partners are discussing ways to protect post-war Ukraine against future invasion. Membership in NATO offers absolute protection “all for one, one for all”, but the 31 countries must agree unanimously to let Ukraine in, and they are not united on this point.
Failing that, major allies like the US, UK, France and Germany could pledge to protect the country from another attack. NATO and the European Union would support this military protection with more money and other forms of assistance.
Conclusions are unlikely to be drawn in Vilnius, but the summit is an important moment for leaders to spell out what those safeguards might look like.
SWEDEN’S ACCESSION TO NATO
Almost all allies, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Sweden say the country has done enough to join the military alliance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan disagrees and is aiming to steal the show at the top.
Sweden gave up a history of military neutrality to seek protection under the NATO security umbrella. He changed his anti-terrorism laws and lifted an arms embargo against Turkey to ease Erdogan’s concerns.
In vain.
The longtime Turkish leader used the question during the election campaign last month. It is also looking for upgraded F-16 fighter jets from the United States, and Sweden could be a lever.
DEFENSE SPENDING
It is an eternal problem. The United States regularly criticizes its allies for not spending enough on their defense budgets. With the money, arms and ammunition pouring into Ukraine, the need to increase national military budgets is obvious.
The allies agreed in 2014 to spend 2% of their gross domestic product on defense within a decade. The 2024 deadline is approaching.
In Vilnius, the leaders will agree to make 2% the floor – ie the minimum they should spend – rather than the ceiling.
REGIONAL DEFENSE PLANS
NATO is carrying out the biggest overhaul of its defense plans since the Cold War in case Putin decides to expand the conflict outside of Ukraine.
Currently, around 40,000 troops are on standby from Estonia in the north to Romania on the Black Sea. About 100 planes take off every day and 27 warships operate in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas.
These numbers are set to increase. Under new defense plans, NATO aims to have up to 300,000 troops available to move to its eastern flank within 30 days. The plans divide its territory into three zones – the far north and the Atlantic, an area north of the Alps and another in southern Europe. Top-secret documents indicate which countries and equipment must defend any threatened area.
BELARUS
It’s not on the agenda, but Belarus is just 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Lithuanian border. Wagner’s mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was offered refuge there. The jury is out on how many of his fighters might join him.
On Friday, Stoltenberg said “we have seen preparations to welcome large groups of soldiers to Belarus. So far, we haven’t seen them go to Belarus.
President Alexander Lukashenko also said last month that his country had received Russian tactical nuclear weapons. He warns that he would order their use to protect his country.
NATO officials think he’s bluffing. But it is entirely possible that Putin will take back his nuclear saber as the leaders meet in Vilnius.