The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), established by China and Russia, this week welcomed Iran as its newest member, although it is on the verge of having enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon.
He then invited Belarus to join the club. Meanwhile, NATO members can’t agree on the next secretary general.
Unless the West focuses on its strategic priorities – from supply chains to security cooperation – while broadening its appeal, it will not keep the war in Ukraine away from Russia, much less deter it. China to invade Taiwan.
The SCO is not just home to geopolitical outcasts.
It was chaired this year by India, with the United Nations, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and strategically important countries like Saudi Arabia all invited.
SCO members now represent more than 40% of the world’s population. They coordinate policy from the Caucasus region – rich in oil, gas and minerals like manganese and tungsten used in manufacturing and steelmaking – towards Afghanistan.
As China’s international reach grows, Western solidarity seemed shaky in Afghanistan and will be tested in Ukraine.
Former US President Donald Trump’s stunt that NATO was “obsolete”, and French President Emmanuel Macron’s complaint that the organization was “brain dead”, seem grossly misjudged and a gift to anti-States. -westerners.
We need smarter uses of Western power, especially as it has diminished over time. At the start of the Cold War, NATO countries accounted for 57% of global gross domestic product (GDP) and China 6%.
Today the figures are 47% and 18% – even though NATO membership has doubled.
Yet France vetoed the opening of a NATO office in Tokyo for fear it would overshadow the European Union’s disappointing diplomatic presence. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is surely right when he observes that NATO is not going to China, but China is coming to NATO through cyberattacks, disinformation and other threats. hybrids.
China is, however, forced to face its own weaknesses. Predictions that its GDP would surpass that of the United States by 2030 have been torn.
China’s working-age population has been declining for years, while youth unemployment in cities has reached one in five. Meanwhile, a real estate bankruptcy has piled huge local government debts on the state.
In truth, it may constrain and disrupt China’s leadership, reducing funds available for the shipbuilding needed to retake Taiwan, but tempting belligerence with its neighbors to deflect simmering domestic tensions.
As Western allies walk this tightrope, we must focus on five priorities.
First, competitiveness and innovation condition influence and resilience. The UK’s strengths lie in technology, life sciences, high-end manufacturing and financial services. We must relentlessly pursue our comparative advantages.
Second, the UK must reduce the risks of dependence on China, by expanding our free trade agreements, strengthening legislative protections for sensitive infrastructure, protecting universities from financial coercion and strengthening our resilience to cyberattacks.
We must also be realistic.
Heady rhetoric about wholesale relocation of manufacturing from China is unsustainable, given the relative labor costs. But we can do more to inject ourselves into critical supply chains, for example by tapping Cornish lithium deposits needed for electric vehicle batteries.
The Anglo-American Atlantic Declaration signed by Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak provides a good precedent.
Even better: India has become the 14th member of the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a framework for strengthening supply chains of critical minerals. This is a game-changing addition to what was previously a predominantly Western partnership.
The larger the number of members, the more it will strengthen economic resilience. And it’s not just the big players that matter: Quietly, Vietnam is fast becoming an important link in de-risking supply chains away from China.
The lesson to be learned from Huawei’s entanglement in our 5G network is that we need to establish more “High Trust, High Tech” partnerships with countries like Japan, South Korea, Israel and India.
Such agreements should develop commercial technology and ensure collaboration against cyberattacks, misinformation and perverse uses of AI in the future.
Third, we must work with a broader network of like-minded nations to defend the rules-based international system against Chinese vandalism – from dumping dumped steel on the world market to China’s bullying of its neighbors in maritime disputes.
Upcoming challenges include rule-making around cyber and artificial intelligence, where China will attract support from both troublemakers such as Russia and Iran, and (more quietly) others. non-aligned countries. This week’s SCO statement goes in that direction.
Fourth, the UK must constantly focus on the Indo-Pacific, which is home to the growth markets of the future.
Membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is economically and strategically significant. We must pursue a free trade agreement with India – a counterweight to China and an increasingly central voice in international forums.
Fifthly, we need broader security cooperation. UK membership of Aukus, the security pact to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, is a start. Then we should collaborate with the Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia) on maritime security and cybersecurity.
Similarly, the 2021 decision by ASEAN to admit the UK as a “dialogue partner” will foster cooperation between China’s nervous neighbors – including Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines – in areas of common interest.
The SCO statement affirmed support for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which subjects African and Asian governments to punitive long-term debt in return for infrastructure investment.
While touring East Africa in 2021, I asked three heads of government why they accepted such onerous terms from China, which they once would have decried as China’s neo-imperialism. from the American or European governments. They all gave the same answer: make us a better offer.
Now is the time for the West to demonstrate that the combination of its trade, its aids, the highest integrity of its businesses and its values is a better bet.
The elephant in the room remains Taiwan.
President Xi Jinping will weigh the risks against the benefits of trying to reunite the mainland with the renegade province.
In an increasingly inflammable domestic context in China, the West’s ability to expand its reach beyond its natural comfort zone, strengthen China’s neighbors and halt the flow of nations to the SCO is our best bet for positively moving away from Beijing’s delicately balanced assessment of the war, and toward more meaningful cooperation.
Dominic Raab is the MP for Esher and Walton, and former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then get a year for just $9 with our exclusive US offer.