NEW YORK (AP) — He has been charged twice. Found guilty of sexual abuse. And he is frowned upon by about a third of his party. But six months before Republicans start choosing their next presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner in the race.
Early leaders don’t always win their party’s nomination, but a growing sense of Trump’s inevitability is ringing alarm bells among some Republicans desperate for the party to continue. Some described a sense of panic — or “DEFCON 1,” as one put it — as they scramble to try to derail Trump and change the course of the race. But there’s no clear plan or strategy for how to do that, and Trump’s critics aren’t yet aligned with a single alternative candidate.
“They’re very concerned,” former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said of fellow Republican leaders who share his view that Trump’s renomination would be a disaster for the party next November. indicate.”
Hogan, who has pulled out of his own campaign for fear that a heavy Republican field will only benefit Trump, described a moment when he realized that “Oh my God, we really could have Trump as our candidate. “.
Polls show that Trump regularly beats his closest rival by 20 to 30 points or more. Of course, the six months left until the Iowa caucuses can be an eternity in politics, where the races can turn in weeks or days. And Trump faces glaring vulnerabilities, including ongoing state and federal investigations into his efforts to nullify the 2020 election and the possibility that he could find himself in the unprecedented position of standing trial while simultaneously staging a campaign.
But even critics acknowledge that the outside events that many relied on to undermine Trump’s position — namely his criminal indictments in New York and Florida — did not hurt him. In fact, the accusations led some voters who were considering an alternative to return to Trump’s camp.
“The indictments actually helped Donald Trump with Republican primary voters,” said Art Pope, a GOP donor from North Carolina who supports former Vice President Mike Pence but still believes the charges, especially in New York, were unfounded.
Meanwhile, anti-Trump Republicans have yet to coalesce around an alternative, as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has struggled to build momentum, leaving many waiting to see if another viable alternative could emerge from the peloton. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has drawn increasing attention.
Several groups that oppose Trump’s candidacy have started spending big bucks to weaken his support, even though they have yet to rally around another candidate. Win It Back PAC, a new independent super PAC linked to conservative Club For Growth Action, invested $3.6 million this month in a new ad featuring an alleged Trump supporter who has had enough of Trump’s antics. ‘former president.
“I love Donald Trump, I love what he’s done,” he begins. But “he has so many distractions…and I’m not sure he can focus on moving the country forward.”
Conservative Americans for Prosperity Action, part of the network founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, has also sought to undermine Trump with door knocking and phone calls. The group says it has discovered in conversations with voters that Trump’s support is softer than most assume and that even those who identify as Trump supporters are concerned about his general election eligibility and open to an alternative. .
Their mailings to voters in early states have focused on this message, including one that features photos of Trump and President Joe Biden and asks recipients, “Is it worth the risk?”
While group officials acknowledge they are under pressure to rally around a non-Trump candidate, they say they are now focused on laying the “foundation” for a Trump alternative to emerge.
“We have to leave Trump,” said Drew Klein, the group’s state director. “That’s where most of the people we talk to are. They’re not necessarily locked in with one candidate, but they know we need to move on.
However, not everyone agrees with the anti-Trump strategy. Former GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who ran focus groups in Iowa, warned that such posts “make it more likely that Trump will win because it turns him into a victim.”
He said he discovered that Republican voters were open to an alternative, but wanted someone who would deliver on Trump’s promises.
“The moon and the stars will have to be aligned for Trump to be defeated,” he said. “And it will be done by the candidate who supports Trump’s agenda but opposes the lack of success.”
Political trajectories can change in an instant, especially after voting begins. During the 2008 campaign, the eventual GOP nominee, Arizona Senator John McCain, did not emerge as the race favorite until his January 2008 victory in the New Hampshire primary. And then-Sen. Hillary Clinton appeared to have a clear advantage for the Democratic nomination, only to be passed by Barack Obama after voting began.
But no former president has mounted a race after losing re-election in the modern era. And Trump maintains a fervent grip on part of the party. Indeed, eight years ago this month, the reality TV star and political newcomer began to pull ahead in the polls, passing rival Jeb Bush to the top spot – a position which he will hold until he wins the nomination.
Ralph Reed, a longtime Republican strategist who is the chairman of the evangelical Faith and Freedom Coalition, said Trump remains in the “strongest position” of all the candidates, but still believes the race “will be competitive and fierce. “.
“No one should take a state for granted, no one should take this primary for granted because anything can happen and often happens,” he said. “Almost every favorite has a near-death experience.”
Critics and rival campaigns point to what they see as a growing list of Trump campaign missteps, particularly in Iowa, where he slammed the state’s popular Gov. Kim Reynolds over his alleged relationship. comfortable with DeSantis while pretending to be neutral. He also skipped a pair of GOP rallies that drew most of his top rivals.
While his rivals spent Friday in Iowa at the Family Leadership Summit, Trump headed to Florida, where he will have the stage largely to himself at the annual Turning Point Action conference, a gathering of thousands of young conservatives.
While DeSantis has a years-long relationship with organizer Charlie Kirk and was featured at last year’s event alongside Trump and received a warm reception from the crowd, DeSantis declined the band’s invitation. , citing a scheduling conflict.
“You only have a few opportunities in the grand scheme of an election cycle to get in front of major groups and all of the media and pass up this opportunity to lay out your vision for America, I just think that’s one of the biggest mistakes,” said Tyler Bowyer, COO of Turning Point Action.
Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor who is among those challenging Trump for the nomination, said he still believes Trump can be beaten. But he said two things needed to change.
“First, candidates like me need to be very clear that Donald Trump is not the right direction for our country or our party,” he said. Second: “Voters need to realize we can’t win in 2024 and it will be a devastating loss for the GOP … up and down the ballot if Donald Trump is our nominee. And that, I believe, will be understood by voters over time.