Sunak’s small boat ride won’t bring back Tory voters, says John Curtice

Rishi Sunak is wrong to believe that his promise to solve the small boat crisis can win back former Tory voters, says polling guru Professor John Curtice.

Professor Curtice claimed the Tories had been misguided in focusing so heavily on the issue of Channel migrants because it reminded people of Brexit’s “dramatic failure” to control immigration.

“What’s remarkable about focusing on the boats is: ‘Let’s take one of the apparent, clearest and most dramatic failures to deliver on a promise in the Brexit campaign and do what we want the audience to focus,'” he told reporters. Wednesday.

The election expert said the small boats “clearly are not the way to persuade people who have left the Tories to come back to them”.

Underlining the importance of the economy for 2019 Conservative voters, Prof Curtice said: “What they need to be able to do is persuade people that the economy in general – and Brexit in particular – will is doing well and is doing well thanks to conservative management. .”

He added: ‘This is the fundamental problem for the Tories – by chasing immigration they are chasing the wrong target.’

Professor Curtice said support for the Conservatives among 2016 Leave voters had “dropped dramatically”, while Labor had seen a “dramatic increase” in support among Brexit-friendly Leave voters.

But he said it was unclear whether that was because Labor was ‘keeping the schtum’ on Brexit, or the general decline in support for Brexit due to the negative impact of the Great Britain exit. EU Britain on the economy.

Professor Curtice was speaking about the continued importance of Brexit among voters at a Best for Britain press conference.

The Internationalist campaign group has revealed the results of a new megapoll that puts Labor on course for an overwhelming majority of 140 in the general election. Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) analysis of the new Focaldata polls showed Labor was on track to win 470 seats.

Suella Braverman and Rishi Sunak have pledged to ‘stop voting’

(Simon Walker/No 10 Downing Street)

However, under a ‘worst-case scenario’ model – where undecided voters come out in favor of the Conservatives and Britain’s Reformers retreat into marginal seats – Labor gets just 316 seats and the Conservatives 286.

The result would leave Labor short of a majority and forced to seek coalition deals with others in a hung parliament.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, warned the election was still “up for grabs” as it encouraged more tactical voting. “There will not necessarily be a change of government.

Carol Vorderman, who has become a fierce government critic, said tactical anti-Tory voting could be a ‘huge factor in the next election’, saying voters were becoming ‘more sophisticated’ in switching from a progressive party to the other.

The TV presenter and activist said voters should ask themselves: “Do they want this disgraceful government or not?”

Luke Tryl, UK director of the group More in Common, said there was ‘the potential for a fairly large’ Labor majority, but said support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party was still ‘quite weak’ – arguing that the opposition would “win by default” due to the unpopularity of the Tories.

Mr Tryl said his group’s recent focus groups suggested Mr Sunak was struggling to convince Northern and Midlands Red Wall voters who are worried about his wealth and wondering if he can ‘s ‘identify’ with their financial problems.

But he said the word that best describes voters’ attitude towards Sir Keir Starmer is ‘meh’, adding: ‘His voice creaks with people.

Asked about voters’ attitude towards Mr Sunak’s potential successors if the Tories lose the next election, Mr Tryl said Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch had been the most popular candidates in the election to the leadership of the Conservatives last summer.

He warned against the idea of ​​Home Secretary Suella Braverman as a potential Tory leader.

Mr Tryl said she would be ‘the longest suicide note in the history of the Conservative-type candidate for the Conservative Party, simply because she is so polarising’.

Leave a Comment