LAS VEGAS – Robert Whittaker has long been one of the greatest mixed martial artists in the world. He is 14-2 since June 28, 2014, only losing to middleweight champion Israel Adesanya during that span.
This is a time when Whittaker beat, among others, Uriah Hall, Derek Brunson, Yoel Romero, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori. It’s a career of big wins, and he’s still fighting like he’s at his peak.
But Whittaker is a quiet guy who doesn’t brag and is often overlooked as a result. On Saturday at UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena, he will face Dricus du Plessis, a rising middleweight who has suddenly become a star.
Du Plessis is 19-2 overall and 5-0 in the UFC. He stopped Brunson late in the second round during their fight at UFC 285 in March. Now he’s taking a big step forward to fight Whittaker.
Whittaker is a solid -400 favorite at BetMGM against du Plessis, who hopes to turn a win over Whittaker into a title shot against Adesanya.
Whittaker, however, is no keeper. He remains at the top of his game and is much more complete than du Plessis. Du Plessis is an aggressive, attacking fighter and there’s a chance he could catch Whittaker with something and finish him off.
Whittaker rarely makes mistakes, has a chin good enough to bail him out if he does, and has the ring IQ few in the sport possess.
I’ll put the -400 and play Whittaker to win. I suspect he will beat du Plessis by countering him skillfully and taking advantage of his mistakes. Whittaker per submission is +1100, but I think there’s a chance Whittaker hurts du Plessis with a counterattack he doesn’t see and finishes him off with a rear naked choke.
If the odds were lower, I wouldn’t play, but since he’s +1100, I’ll also play Whittaker by submission and put half a unit on that. Each unit of my imaginary bankroll is $100, so that would mean I would risk $50 for a potential gain of $550.
Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez a draw
Alexander Volkanovski will defend the featherweight championship in the main event on Saturday against interim champion Yair Rodriguez and is a solid -350 favorite to win and retain his belt. Rodriguez is +265.
The over-under is 4.5 turns, with more even money and less than -130.
Rodriguez has great shots that come from all angles. He is fast and hits hard and is an excellent combination hitter. Volkanovski’s boxing has steadily improved – and after going 15 rounds in three wins against the legendary Max Holloway, how could it be otherwise? – and he will be able to stand.
The big advantage is in Volkanovski’s grappling, where he has a lot more ways to win.
Rodriguez’s kicks are next level, though, and he’ll likely throw a lot to try and take the champion’s legs from him. If Rodriguez is able to take advantage of the kicks, it throws the tide of the fight significantly in his favor.
The line on this is way too wide, in my opinion, and I expected Volkanovski to become a 9-5 or maybe 2-1 favorite. But at nearly 4-1, it’s a tough game.
So I’m going to take the +265 and bet that Rodriguez will win with his kicks. No one, however, is tougher and more determined than Volkanovski, so I think this fight goes all the way. Thus, I will bet even money that it exceeds 4.5 turns.
Can Moreno turn the tide?
Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is a -200 favorite to beat Alexandre Pantoja, who has +170. It’s good that Pantoja is 2-0 in fights with Moreno.
Significantly, they haven’t fought in five years when Pantoja won a decision when they fought in Chile. Moreno is a very different and more complete fighter than he was then.
In a fight that could well be Fight of the Night, I like Moreno winning, so I’m going to lay down the -200 and take the champ.
Other games for UFC 290:
• Bo Nickal is -200 down to win by first-round submission against late substitute Val Woodburn. I’ll deposit the money and take Nickal to win by sub first.
• I’m going to lay down -285 and play Jalin Turner to defeat Dan Hooker, who is +240.
• I will take Robbie Lawler, who is +200, to beat Niko Price, who is a -240 favorite. The fight is the finale of Lawler’s illustrious career, and I have a feeling that although he’s struggled recently, going 1-5 in his last six, he’ll be squeezing every last gut out of his body. to come out on top in this one.