LONDON — President Joe Biden and transatlantic leaders will meet this week in Europe to consider how to deter Russia from Ukraine in a war that is approaching the 18-month mark — a critical moment as the world watches for close after a failed mutiny.
The White House’s message that Biden has left NATO “more united” than ever is likely to come under increasing scrutiny in the coming days as leaders of the countries that make up the Atlantic Treaty Organization are facing differences over military spending, plans to expand the alliance, and who should lead it.
Biden’s five-day stint through Europe begins in London, England, where the president will meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and King Charles III on Monday before heading to Vilnius, Lithuania, for the start of a two-day summit aimed at reinforcing a message of solidarity among NATO members and strengthening support for Kyiv.
Scheduled to meet just 30 miles from Belarus, the starting point of attacks on Ukraine, the summit’s importance has grown as the war drags on and following a failed mutiny by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russian leaders.
Biden will deliver a speech on Wednesday that the White House says will highlight “how the United States, alongside our allies and partners, stands with Ukraine, upholds democratic values, and takes action to address global challenges.”
He will then travel to Finland, NATO’s newest member, for a Nordic defense summit.
It’s a trip that Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan has promised will “showcase the president’s leadership on the world stage.”
Still, divisions over Ukraine’s push for a clearer path to joining the defense alliance risk undermining Biden’s promise to revitalize and restore U.S. alliances.
Biden laid out the challenge in an interview that aired on CNN on Sunday when he said he didn’t think there was “unanimity within NATO on whether or not to bring in Ukraine. in the NATO family now, right now, in the middle of a war”. and highlighted the alliance’s fundamental agreement that promises its members mutual defense in conflict.
“For example, if you’ve done this, then you know – and I mean what I say – we’re committed to committing every inch of territory that is NATO territory,” Biden said. “It’s a commitment we all made no matter what. If the war continues, then we are all at war. We are at war with Russia, if that were the case.
And Biden conceded reservations about Ukraine’s desire for a faster track, saying, “I don’t think they’re ready for NATO membership.”
“I think it’s premature to say, to call for a vote, you know, now, because there are other conditions that have to be met, including democratization and some of these issues,” added the president.
How Biden handles the issue could have game-changing results for the president, said Daniel Fried, former U.S. ambassador to Poland.
“Ukraine is going to be the dominant issue at the summit: there is the question of how NATO plans to defend its eastern flank against Russian aggression, and then there is the question of NATO-Ukraine relations,” he said. Fried said. “And there are risks for Biden.”
“While the White House was initially concerned about a divided alliance, the risk now is that the United States will be seen as reluctant and uncertain,” Fried said, citing a growing consensus among NATO member leaders for push for stronger and more defined safeguards for Ukraine. .
“It’s not just the Baltic states,” Fried said, alluding to the differences that have sometimes pitted Ukraine’s staunchest supporters against other allies since the start of the war. “The risk is that the United States will waste a lot of the political capital that we have invested in defending Ukraine – we have set the stakes pretty high.”
Biden and NATO leaders don’t need to urge Ukraine to overcome the breach, “but it does take a clear vision,” Fried said. “They need enough strategic clarity for the Ukrainians to understand that if they do the right thing at home, they end up being protected by the NATO alliance.”
“It’s a matter of alliance credibility,” said Christopher Skaluba, an Atlantic Council security expert and a senior Pentagon official during the Obama administration. “They have been repeating this declaration from Bucharest like a mantra for 15 years. And now, after what Ukraine has been through, if you can’t find something more tangible for their path to membership, I think that’s a setback.
Aboard Air Force One on Sunday, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters the summit would provide an opportunity “to mark progress on the road to membership aspirations of the United States.” ‘Ukraine’, with transatlantic leaders expected to discuss the issue directly with Ukraine. the second day of the summit when a new NATO-Ukraine Defense Council meets.
Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Friday cited the NATO-Ukraine Council and a multi-year non-lethal assistance program to help modernize Ukrainian forces among steps to bring Ukraine closer to NATO.
Fried argued that the Ukraine roadmap issue opens up opportunities for Biden, including the possibility of a “significant victory in Vilnius.”
“They don’t need to have an invitation issued for Ukraine; they need enough strategic clarity for the Ukrainians to understand that if they do the right thing at home, they end up being protected by the NATO alliance,” Fried said. “If we don’t have it, if it’s seen as insufficient because of the reluctance of the United States, it will hurt.”
Still, some are calling for greater caution.
Justin Logan, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, cited the president’s reasoning for delaying Ukraine’s acquiescence to NATO as a factor that should be considered now and in the long term.
“Biden says we don’t want Ukraine in NATO today because that would mean NATO would be at war with Russia. But if the US and other countries don’t have enough stakes in Ukraine to fight Russia, why even consider adding it to the alliance? Logan said.
This article originally appeared on NBCNews.com