Maritime nations finalized a plan on Thursday to cut emissions from the shipping industry to net zero by around 2050, but experts warn the deal falls far short of what is needed to prevent disaster climatic.
Negotiators at the United Nations International Maritime Organization meeting in London, seen as key to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, are expected to formally agree on Friday for shipping emissions to reach net zero “by or around” 2050, rather than setting the date as a hard deadline.
The draft plan also calls for emissions from shipping to be cut by at least 20% but aim for 30% by 2030 and at least 70% but work towards 80% by 2040 despite pressure from Pacific countries to more ambitious goals. Experts calculate that industry needs to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to stay on track with the 1.5°C temperature target.
Environmentalists say the draft plan would see the shipping industry use its carbon budget – a calculation of how much carbon dioxide various industries and countries can emit before global warming limits are exceeded – by 2031.
“This week’s climate talks were like rearranging deckchairs on a sinking ship,” said Faig Abbasov of Transport and Environment, a Brussels-based environmental nongovernmental organization that is part of the meetings in London.
“The UN had a chance to set a clear and unambiguous trajectory towards the 1.5C temperature goal, but all it found was confusing fudge,” Abbasov said.
The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents 80% of the world’s commercial fleet, has expressed concern about a “lack of focus” on how to deliver the goals.
The group is calling for a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from industry that would encourage producers to invest in alternative fuels and help developing countries target the planet-warming gases spewed by ships, although environmentalists say this will have little effect and will delay the move away from fossil fuels.
“The new fuels that we expect the majority of the shipping industry to use, we expect to be two, three or four times more expensive than the fuel oil we use today,” said Simon Bennett, Assistant Secretary. – general of the group. “So what we need to do is create a market for these new fuels.”
Options range from methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, sustainable biofuels and synthetic fuels, to technologies such as carbon capture, but these are currently not scalable.
“In the shipping industry, nobody knows which horse to back,” Bennett said. “It is still a long way to know which of these options will prove to be the most viable.”
Except for some experimental projects, he said there is virtually no fuel available to industry that does not emit greenhouse gases.
“Companies that are going to supply emissions reduction equipment want a clear signal so they know it is safe to invest in these technologies. That’s why it’s important to have ambitious goals for 2030,” said John Maggs, director of maritime policy at Seas At Risk and chair of the Clean Shipping Coalition, who also participated in the meetings.
“The only way to unlock this investment in clean navigation technologies would be to have a really strong 2030 target. A weak 2030 target would definitely be a lost opportunity,” he said.
After the IMO plan is adopted, major port nations such as the United States, China and Korea could move things forward by setting even stricter limits within their jurisdictions, Madeline Rose said, senior director of climate at advocacy group Pacific Environment.
“As we see with cars and trucks, when major markets set firm emission standards, the broader market responds,” Rose said. “The solutions exist. It’s about creating the political conditions that compel this industry to invest in these solutions rather than chasing profits based on cheap fossil fuels.
The targets are revised every five years, which experts say means the industry is likely to contribute significantly to global warming before the plans are revised again in 2028. The previous target of the IMO was for the shipping industry to cut its emissions by at least half from 2008 to 2050.
Maritime transport currently accounts for almost 3% of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the IMO.
A report by the European Parliament has warned that this share could increase significantly by 2050 if steps are not taken to reduce the sector’s dependence on fossil fuels.
Ships transport around 90% of all traded goods in the world and are a major source of pollution, emitting around one billion tonnes of greenhouse gases every year. That’s roughly the same amount as 243 coal-fired power plants. About 40% of all products carried on ships are coal, oil and gas which warm the atmosphere when burned.
A University College London study estimated that each year of delay will cost the shipping industry an additional $100 billion to reduce emissions to net zero.
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Arasu reported from Bengaluru, India. Courtney Bonnell in London and John Flesher in Traverse City, Michigan, contributed to this report.
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