(Bloomberg) – Investors are once again fascinated by meme stocks as they seek out lower-quality names in search of yield. And in the process, they’re raising a “red flag” for the S&P 500 index.
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When some of the market’s most shorted stocks rebound, as meme stocks are currently doing, and safe-haven assets like consumer staples tumble, investors should be prepared for a few days of weakness in the market. market at large, according to BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky.
The Solactive Roundhill Meme stock index, home to companies like Rivian Automotive Inc. and Riot Platforms Inc., has climbed more than 10% in the past three sessions, while the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR fund is down 1.3%. Over the past 18 months, the gap between the two has been 10 percentage points or more 17 times, and the S&P 500 has been lower three and five days later on 12 of those occasions, Krinsky wrote.
“It’s a double-edged sword when we start to see some of the lower quality names come together,” Krinsky wrote in a note to clients. “When we see a surge of this magnitude, especially relative to a defensive group like consumer staples, it often indicates a hunt for what hasn’t moved and can move the most, and that’s often the end of the movement.”
The last time the meme index outperformed commodities by double digits over a three-day period, the S&P 500 fell 4.5% over the next 20 days, according to data from BTIG. Although the data is getting a little murky as the days go by, if the trend continues, investors might be wise to take advantage of Tuesday’s modest rise ahead of the June Consumer Price Index release on Wednesday morning.
Only three of the 25 members of the Meme Index have fallen since Thursday, while big gains for Carvana Co., Riot Platforms and Upstart Holdings Inc. led the way.
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