The Pac-12 may actually be too good to get a team in the College Football Playoff in 2023.
Seriously.
The final year of the Pac-12 as we know it has produced what could be the best conference in college football. But that depth at the top could come at the price of extending the league’s College Football Playoff drought.
No Pac-12 team has made the four-team playoff since Washington at the end of the 2016 season and the Huskies look to be the top team in the conference this season. No. 5 Washington is 6-0 after beating No. 9 Oregon in Week 7 and boasts the Heisman favorite in QB Michael Penix Jr.
But the Pac-12 is a gauntlet this season, especially for the Huskies. Five teams are currently ranked in the top 18 of the AP Top 25 and Washington faces three of the other four in that group over a daunting November stretch. After games against Arizona State and Stanford, Washington ends the season at No. 18 USC, vs. No. 14 Utah, at No. 12 Oregon State and against Washington State.
No Pac-12 frontrunner has what you can consider to be an easy schedule, either. USC faces Utah on Saturday and also plays No. 9 Oregon and No. 25 UCLA. Oregon still has Utah, USC and Oregon State.
It’s a setup for disaster for the conference’s playoff hopes. The best-case scenario, of course, is that two teams emerge over the second half of the season with just one regular-season loss and meet in the Pac-12 title game for the right to advance to the playoff. The more realistic situation may be a host of 10-2 and 9-3 teams. Or, in true Pac-12 fashion, a matchup between an 11-1 team and a 10-2 team in the conference title game with the two-loss team emerging as the victor.
And remember, no two-loss team has ever made the four-team College Football Playoff.
The Pac-12’s excellence at the top is why we don’t have Washington, Oregon or anyone else in the playoff in our first set of bowl projections. Quite frankly, we hope that changes by the end of the season. The Pac-12 deserves to end the streak before it disperses. But we’re hedging our bets at the moment.
Here’s our first look at what the bowl lineup could look like at the end of the season. These projections will be updated weekly and James Madison (6-0) is included in our first set of predictions because we’re not sure there will be enough 6-6 teams to fill out the bowl slate.
New Year’s Six Bowls
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29)
Texas vs. Washington
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30)
Penn State vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30)
North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1)
Air Force vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1)
Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1)
Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Other Bowls
Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 16)
Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 16)
Liberty vs. Troy
Cure Bowl (Dec. 16)
Colorado State vs. Appalachian State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 16)
New Mexico State vs. Utah State
LA Bowl (Dec. 16)
Fresno State vs. Washington State
Independence Bowl (Dec. 16)
West Virginia vs. Arizona
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 18)
Marshall vs. UTSA
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19)
Houston vs. Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 21)
Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia Southern
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22)
Mississippi State vs. James Madison
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 23)
Auburn vs. Navy
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 23)
Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia State
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23)
SMU vs. Texas Tech
Potato Bowl (Dec. 23)
Toledo vs. Wyoming
68 Ventures Bowl (Dec. 23)
Ohio vs. South Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 23)
Utah vs. Wisconsin
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 23)
Boise State vs. Memphis
Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26)
Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois
First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26)
BYU vs. San Diego State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26)
TCU vs. Nebraska
Military Bowl (Dec. 27)
Tulane vs. Louisville
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 27)
Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27)
Miami vs. UCLA
Texas Bowl (Dec. 27)
Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28)
Virginia Tech vs. South Florida
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28)
Syracuse vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28)
Duke vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28)
Kansas State vs. USC
Gator Bowl (Dec. 29)
Clemson vs. Florida
Sun Bowl (Dec. 29)
NC State vs. Oregon State
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29)
Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Maryland vs. Missouri
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 30)
Eastern Michigan vs. UNLV
ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 1)
Notre Dame vs. LSU
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)
Iowa vs. Ole Miss