Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud (left) in Tehran, Iran on June 17, 2023. Credit – Iranian Presidency / Handout-Anadolu Agency
Under pressure from Western sanctions, Iran is actively seeking new international trade and investment partners, and it has made some progress. In particular, a Chinese-brokered deal to normalize relations with regional rival Saudi Arabia has created business opportunities, and its willingness to supply Russia with drones and ammunition for use in Ukraine has also created opportunities. new openings. It also helps the Iranian government know that the wave of nationwide protests that followed the death in police custody last September of a young woman arrested for wearing her headscarf too loosely has largely died down, mainly thanks to the willingness of the authorities to arrest a large number of people and execute a handful of them publicly.
But Iran’s leaders know their respite from the pressure will prove temporary. The economic pressure continues. Thanks mainly to sanctions, the Iranian currency has lost more than 90% of its value against the dollar over the past decade, and price inflation remains above 40%. The benefits of better relations with the Saudis will take time to materialize, and rapprochement is likely to remain tentative. President Ebrahim Raisi’s “Looking East” strategy aims to attract major new infrastructure investment from Russia and, more importantly, China, but Russia’s economic prospects remain perilous, a partnership in Wartime with the Kremlin will lead to new sanctions on Iran, and the Chinese can buy large volumes of oil at a deep discount from Russia, leaving Iran out in the cold.
The continuing difficulties ensure that intense public anger and spontaneous protests can resurface at any time. In particular, although protesters over the past year have left the streets, many Iranian women and girls still refuse to wear the compulsory headscarf, and the government has worked to restore its credibility with religious conservatives by pressuring the app. Police have issued tickets to uncovered women using public transport or even in private cars, and companies are sometimes fined for serving them. With so much pent up resentment and economic pain, another arrest gone wrong could trigger another wave of unrest even harder to contain.
None of this is new to Iran. A weak economy and cycles of protest and repression are all too familiar. Yet in the background lurks both hope and fear that fundamental change is not far away.
In the 44-year history of the Islamic Republic, there has been only one transfer of supreme power. In 1989, the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini triggered a transition to current leader Ali Khamenei, who has remained in power ever since. Octogenarian Khamenei is a cancer survivor in declining health, and there is no clear heir for the clerical establishment and political elite to uplift. Today, anyone in Iran with access to wealth, power and privilege must wonder how succession might alter their fortunes, and a political transition will raise public expectations of change among those who are worn down by hardship and poverty. social repression.
Finally, there are the continuing risks created by Iran’s nuclear program and the inability of Iranian and Western leaders to negotiate a new agreement on its future. Here, too, tensions are nothing new, but ever-higher levels of uranium enrichment are bringing closer the day when Israeli and American policymakers will have to decide how to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon that could trigger a dangerous arms race in the Middle East.
It might seem that the problems Iran creates for itself and the problems it poses for foreigners never change. Yet the risk is growing that Iran will soon become one of the world’s most dangerous wildcards.