Here’s 1 long-shot pick to win the BMW Championship

The PGA heads to Olympia Fields for the BMW Championship, a course that last hosted in 2020. It’s the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs with just 50 players in the field.

The course has narrow, tree-lined fairways that have received a lot of rain this week. Due to recent weather conditions, driving distance will be key as the fairways will now be more receptive. Here’s one player to back in the top-20 market, who I also consider a long shot to win.

Top 20 +125

Top 10 +360

Top 5 +900

To win +5000

The Australian pro has been on a run with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts, including three straight Top 10s. Coming off a T6 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Davis has now gained strokes in every category during that span. He has the metrics to contend — 21st in driving distance, top 10 for iron play between 150-200 yards and fourth around the green, which could be beneficial with the undulated greens. I’m looking at iron buckets since the course may play longer from the rain.

Olympia Fields has similar features to that of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club. Davis finished T4 in his debut, gaining nearly 10 strokes ball striking. He hasn’t hit that number since. However, Davis has been consistent.

Even with a T6 in The Players Championship, another event with a strong field, Davis is a long shot because of the 10 missed cuts on his 2023 resume. He may have found something at just the right time. The single PGA title-holder can play on similar course layouts, in tough fields and is running hot. Back Davis in the top-20 market and sprinkle on his outright odds.

Leave a Comment