DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — As the six-month sprint to the Iowa caucuses begins, the sprawling field of Republican presidential candidates faces mounting pressure to prove they can become serious challengers for the former President Donald Trump.
The urgency is particularly acute for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who entered the race in May with the hope that he would quickly become Trump’s chief rival. For now, however, he’s struggling to generate the level of enthusiasm that Trump commands from the GOP base, contributing to uncertainty that DeSantis will become the threat to the former president he was once meant to be.
“That’s what DeSantis wanted to be. It’s possible he still is,” said Gentry Collins, a seasoned Iowa and national Republican strategist who led Mitt Romney’s 2008 caucus campaign. But that certainly doesn’t sound like me – it’s become clear there’s no room for another alternative to Trump.”
DeSantis is among six White House hopefuls who will be in Iowa on Friday to participate in the Family Leadership Summit, one of several events to be held across the state in the coming weeks as voters begin to scrutinize more their options seriously. Trump is not present, exposing him to criticism from some Republicans that he is ignoring the forums that are a staple of presidential politics in Iowa.
Trump has crossed the state several times in recent weeks and will return on Tuesday.
There’s still time for one of the contenders to issue a more robust challenge to Trump. But the Iowa Republican Party’s recent announcement that the caucuses would be held Jan. 15 — weeks earlier than the last three open contests — has reinforced the reality that candidates seeking a turnaround are on a schedule.
Beyond DeSantis, Tim Scott is being closely watched. The South Carolina senator impressed many with an agenda just as conservative as that proposed by Trump or DeSantis. But some say Scott stands out for an aggressive outreach strategy paired with an optimistic message.
“The reason (Scott) makes inroads is because he does the real hard work of retail politics in Iowa, forming small groups with pastors and churches and leading meetings and bigger and bigger places,” said Mike Demastus, an evangelical pastor from Des Moines who has met with Scott several times and participated in private meetings between other candidates and politically active clergy. “That’s why the needle moves for him.”
LaTomah Hauff, a retired speech pathologist who lives in Sioux City, isn’t ready to commit to a candidate. But she regularly attends candidate events in her part of western Iowa and has added Scott to her short list of favorites.
“He’s very passionate about what he believes in,” she said. “And there is hope and optimism in what he says.”
Still, Trump is the undisputed leader in Iowa, similar to the sway he holds over Republicans nationally. That makes Iowa especially crucial for anyone hoping to arrest the former president. Given the relatively early date of the caucuses next year, a strong victory for Trump in Iowa could put him in a dominant position ahead of subsequent contests.
“There’s no question that Donald Trump is winning Iowa right now,” said Josie Albrecht, a former Iowa GOP Statehouse communications adviser, who advises the state party but was neutral during the 2024 campaign. “I think he’s had a lot of support for many years, and that’s a tough wall to break down.”
Trump eagerly embraces high expectations. His campaign is optimistic in Iowa, leveraging his longstanding support in a state he easily won twice in the general election, combined with aggressive digital outreach that emphasizes nontraditional conservative voters.
Still, Trump faces some vulnerabilities, including a feud with popular Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds over his refusal to officially endorse his campaign. And while many party members view the recent indictments in New York and Florida as politically motivated, they nonetheless risk becoming a liability that rivals may try to exploit.
In a note shared last month with donors to the influential network launched by Charles and David Koch, Michael Palmer, who leads the group’s data and polling, took issue with what he called “the myth of Trump’s inevitability”. He wrote that a significant number of Trump voters remain open to a Republican alternative, while citing public polls that indicate DeSantis could be a stronger candidate in the general election against Biden.
But a central challenge for Republicans is honing a message that resonates with voters who supported Trump but are open to others in 2024.
Americans for Prosperity, the political arm of the Koch brothers’ operation, is working to explicitly undermine Trump in Iowa and other early-competition states. Since February, an army of AFP staff and volunteers has been knocking on thousands of doors a week in Iowa, raising questions about Trump’s chances in the general election, said the group’s state director, Drew Klein.
This approach concerned some in the GOP. Cedar Rapids Republican Bernie Hayes, GOP chairman in Iowa’s second-most populous county, said he was shocked when Klein told people last week they shouldn’t support Trump in the huddle.
“Why would you speak against him when there is a large percentage of people who support Donald Trump?” said Hayes, who is also a member of the state’s Republican Party central committee and publicly neutral. “This message will waste a lot of time.”
Candidates who are most direct in hitting Trump are not making inroads in Iowa. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, for example, did not visit the state as a 2024 candidate and is not among the summit speakers on Friday. Instead, he is focusing his energy on New Hampshire’s most libertarian voters.
The DeSantis-backing super PAC, meanwhile, has prioritized promoting the governor without attacking Trump, which advisers say puts off his former supporters.
DeSantis seems to be changing his first state strategy to some extent. After largely keeping reporters at bay, he is holding what is described as a press conference Tuesday in South Carolina.
With several candidates hoping for comebacks, DeSantis may ultimately be best suited for a long job against Trump. He will almost certainly have the resources to stay in the contest for the nomination long after Republicans in Iowa have voted. His campaign said he raised $20 million in the first six weeks after his announcement; the super PAC claimed $130 million over the same period.
And while some potential DeSantis donors have raised concerns, others are moving away from Trump in favor of the governor. Among them is Tim Michels, the 2022 Republican candidate for governor of neighboring Wisconsin. The construction mogul, who was endorsed by Trump before his midterm loss last fall, attended a DeSantis fundraiser in a Milwaukee suburb on Tuesday, according to three people who attended the event but were not authorized to speak on behalf of Michels.
Michels, through a spokesperson, did not return a message for comment.
Fundraiser hosts included Republican mega-donors Dick and Liz Uihlein, who raised money for Trump in Wisconsin and donated to efforts to get him elected in 2016 and 2020. Neither has attended the fundraiser, but they were listed on the invite, among many other locals. prominent Republicans.
But any recovery for DeSantis will almost certainly be predicated on a strong showing in Iowa. And some in the state say he has the opportunity by continuing to stoke conservative outrage related to transgender rights and racial equality.
“People love what they hear from him,” said Demastus, the Des Moines pastor. “He speaks the language of gospel love, protects our children, repels woke ideology.”
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People reported from New York. Associated Press writer Scott Bauder in Madison, Wisconsin, contributed.