Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don breaks down some key numbers with the 2023 NFL training camps just weeks away.
Case for Tony Pollard as fantasy RB2
Christian McCaffrey deserves the top spot among fantasy RBs considering its use in Kyle ShanahanIt is offense (even with the Elijah Mitchell factor). But there’s a big tier after CMC made up of nine running backs, all with similar arguments (and questions) to file next. Tony Pollard is my #2 fantasy (his expert consensus rank is RB9), assuming Ezekiel Elliott not going back to Dallas. Pollard on average 19.3 PPR points for 10 litters last season, which would have been the fantasy RB3. He finished as RB8 despite seeing less than 50% of snaps in eight games and totaling a modest 232 touches – Dallas running backs combined for 524, and Elliott left. Pollard won’t become a real workhorse by getting over 325 keys, but he is on average 102.3 scrimmage yards and 0.91 touchdowns during games with a snap rate of over 50% throughout his career; and now he’s clearly set up for by far the most opportunities of his career.
Meanwhile, there’s cause for concern with the other eight running backs ranked similarly:
Pollard is due for touchdown regression and will suffer from by Kellen Moore departurebut Mike McCarthyIt is heavy game calls should help. Moreover, Ronald Jones is capable, rightfully free of drafts and the likely primary beneficiary should Pollard suffer an injury. Pollard in round three has always been too good to be true, but he’s still an absolute smash at the end of the second.
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Rashad Penny to the moon 🚀
Penny has a long injury history and is susceptible carries more risk than most running backs, but that’s why his ADP is 92.9 despite the upside-down “winning the league” fantasy. Penny had one of best college seasons ever, totaling 2,383 scrimmage yards with 25 touchdowns in 13 games during his senior year at San Diego State. he is the NFL’s all-time leader in yards per rush (minimum 300 rushes) — front bo jackson And Jamal Charles. Penny just turned 27 (and has low career mileage), excels in yards after contact and maybe break maps in the Philadelphia system. He is overproduced Derrick Henry when given 12+ races in a game during his career.
Penny joins now a very successful Eagles attack who lost Miles Sander in free agency and sports one of the best lines in the league. Philadelphia also ranked first in pace and games per minute last season. Jalen hurts will steal touchdowns, but Sanders had the fourth-most rushes in the red zone and scored 11 touchdowns last year in that role. Penny wasn’t used much in the passing game, but Hurts targeted RBs at one of the lowest rates in the league last season, so newcomer By Andre Swift appears to be a poor fit into his new diet (and is at similar injury risk).
The released Penny chatters thanks to his cheap contract seems highly unlikely given his health clearance (and since it is the team’s best option to play running back). I will give Penny a 50/50 chance of scoring more fantasy points this season than Miles Sanderwhich goes five laps earlier. Each the ball carrier poses a real risk of injury. Penny is in the top 25 RBs on my chart.
You might want to avoid Rachaad White at ADP
White sees a lot of fantasy love as the Buccaneers’ likely new workhorse thanks to little RB competition in Tampa Bay. But expectations should be kept in check (and fantastic picks around his 78.3 Yahoo ADP should be used elsewhere, like on our guy Rashaad Penny instead). White is a late third-round pick who has never reached 200 litters since college and was one of the worst runners in the league as a rookie, finishing dead last in the race yards above expectations. It was also dominated by dusty Leonard Fournette in the passing game and greatly benefited from Tom Brady checks.
The Buccaneers leave from provide the most catchable targets in the league last season at Mayfield Baker (Or Kyle Trask). Mayfield too target ball carriersbut its EPA/recoil (-0.12) and CPOE (-7%) were both worse than Zach Wilson last season; a downgrade doesn’t get more dramatic than going from GOAT to Mayfield. Tampa Bay scored the second fewest points in the NFC last season and is expected to be one of the NFL’s worst teams in 2023. White’s sell-out window in Dynasty Leagues is right now.