BERLIN (AP) — Scientists say scorching temperatures that blanketed Europe last summer may have resulted in more than 61,000 heat-related deaths, underscoring the need for governments to address the effects of global warming on health.
In their study, published in the journal Nature Medicine on Monday, the researchers looked at official death figures from 35 European countries and found a marked increase in deaths between late May and early September last year compared to the recorded average. over a period of 30 years.
The increase in heat-related deaths was higher among older people, women and in Mediterranean countries, they found. But the data also indicated that measures taken in France since a deadly heatwave two decades ago may have helped prevent deaths there last year.
“In the pattern of average summer temperatures in Europe during the summer of 2022, we see no borders,” said co-author Joan Ballester of the Barcelona Institute of Global Health. The highest temperatures were recorded in part of southwestern Europe, from Spain to France and Italy.
“But when we look at heat-related mortality, we start to see boundaries,” Ballester told The Associated Press. While France had 73 heat-related deaths per million people last summer, Spain’s rate was 237 and Italy’s was 295, according to the study.
“Perhaps France learned from the experience of 2003,” he said.
The French alert system includes public announcements with advice on how to stay cool and encouraging people to drink water and avoid alcohol.
Not all heat-related deaths calculated across Europe last summer were linked to climate change. Some would have occurred even if summer temperatures had remained consistent with the long-term average. But there is no doubt that the intense heat of 2022 – which saw many European records crash – led to higher death rates, as other studies of heat-related deaths have also shown.
The authors calculated that there were more than 25,000 more heat-related deaths last summer than the average from 2015 to 2021.
Without appropriate prevention measures, “we would expect a heat-related mortality burden of 68,116 deaths on average each summer by 2030,” the authors said. They predict that number will rise to more than 94,000 by 2040 and more than 120,000 by mid-century.
The Spanish and German governments recently announced new measures to deal with the effects of hot weather on their populations. In Switzerland, a group of older people cite the danger that intense heat poses to older women in a court case seeking to force the government to take tougher climate action.
A difficulty for researchers is that heat-related deaths often occur in people with pre-existing conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, said Matthias an der Heiden of the Robert Koch Institute in Germany, who was not involved. in the study. This means that heat is not the underlying cause of death and is therefore not recorded in cause of death statistics. This can mask the significant impact of heat on vulnerable people, with up to 30% more deaths in some age groups during periods of hot weather.
“The problem is going to get worse due to climate change and medical systems have to adapt to that,” he said.
An der Heiden also noted that the Nature study estimated nearly double the number of heat-related deaths in Germany last year compared to his institute. While the discrepancy could be explained by the different heat threshold values used, it indicates the need for a more detailed description of heat-related mortality that distinguishes between moderate and intense heat, he said. declared.
According to co-author Ballester, the impact of the heat greatly depends on the overall health of the population, especially with regard to heart and lung disease.
Other measures, already implemented in countries like France, include raising awareness of the dangers of high temperatures and identifying people who need special attention during heat waves, he said.
“These are cheap, cost-effective measures,” Ballester said.
He rejected the suggestion that rising temperatures around the world could, overall, be beneficial due to fewer deaths during the winter months, noting the multiple risks posed to human civilization by a rapid climate change.
“In my opinion and the opinion of all climatologists, the less climate change the better,” Ballester said. “That’s why it’s so important that we start, as soon as possible, to mitigate climate change and reduce vulnerability.”
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